The U.S.’newly-reinforced Asia-Pacific alliance has turned out to be an important factor influencing the regional landscape and big power relations. Historically, the close political and military cooperation between the U.S. and its allies was one of the factors that helped it win the Cold War. After the end of the Cold War, and especially during its War Against Terror, Washington’s overconfidence earned it many critics and even some former allies distanced themselves from it. To some extent, this rattled the foundation of U.S. hegemony. After more than a decade of this War Against Terror, the U.S. has turned its strategic focus towards the Asia Pacific, intending to rebalance power in the region and reinforce ties with its allies. Some American strategists have realized that they can’t stop a rival alliance forming to challenge its regional influence unless they strengthen American alliances in the region, promote a rule-based international order and launch a Trans-Pacific security system. The U.S. defense strategy is clear about Washington’s intention to stand by its allies and friends and that it values existing ties for providing a foundation for maintaining security in the Asia Pacific.
The U.S. has been exploiting every opportunity to improve its Asia-Pacific alliances in recent years. First, it has been strengthening its security alliances and expanding the scope of those ties. For example, the Japan-U.S. alliance has expanded the extent of their defense from Japan proper to circumjacent areas; the U.S.’unilateral security provision for Japan has become a bilateral military cooperation agreement and the two countries have tightened military integration. Secondly, the U.S. has taken advantage of conflict and tensions in the region to improve ties with affected nations. When inter-Korean relations were strained, the U.S. upgraded its South Korea-U.S. military alliance; when the situation in the South China Sea became unstable, the U.S. strengthened its strategic ties with the Philippines, Thailand, and India etc., and started military ties with Vietnam. Thirdly, it has tried to expand these alliances into networks. For example it has pushed for U.S.-Japan-South Korea and U.S.-Japan-Australia trilateral strategic dialogues. It has also tightened its military ties with Australia to exploit geographical advantages. On top of this, recent U.S.-Japan-India ties have become institutionalized.
These moves by the U.S. are evidence of its hostility towards China, and this creates risks for the future China-U.S. relationship. These strengthened military ties and adjustments in U.S. military deployment in the Asia Pacific indicates that Washington is taking precautions against China and that it views China as a security target. The U.S.’Air Sea Battle is obviously directed at China. It is aimed at attacking China’s land-based strategic targets from the sea and air using the U.S. air force and navy as well as the support from important allies. Facing this kind of pressure, China must develop an effective strategy to counter Washington’s aggression and maintain the strategic balance with the U.S. Washington has repeatedly stressed its security commitments in the region and the roles of its new allies and key partners. These comments have likely stirred up some countries who have hopes of containing China by cooperating with the U.S. Countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam may view these comments as expressions of political support, and thus encourage them to make rash decisions and incorrectly judge situations that arise.
However, these alliances, the products of the Cold War, have already proved inopportune. The Asia-Pacific situation is complicated and international relations will tend to keep in check the role of military alliances. Countries can no longer be viewed simply as allies or enemies and Sino-U.S. relations will not proceed uniaxially or on the basis of conflict logic. Other forces have come into play beyond structural contradictions and conflict logic. Closer ties between nations have made it more urgent for big powers coordination. So long as China maintains the momentum of its development and establishes an effective deterrencecapability, neighboring countries are bound to pursue ties with China cautiously and pragmatically. Even those allies of the U.S. will avoid any strategic gambling against China initiated by the U.S.. The U.S. will find itself increasingly at odds with its allies over China and ties will weaken.
China is capable of eliminating or weakening the U.S.’alliance system. Firstly, China should fully understand Asia-Pacific security, global politics and international relations and take measure to improve relations with its neighbors, expand its strategic space and thus reduce any pressure from the U.S. alliance system. The changing international situation is not only a challenge but also an opportunity for a rising China, because complex international relations help new big powers resist containment and avoid being targeted by traditional power politics. China should also exploit common interests when dealing with other countries, especially big powers. Moreover, China should work at establishing relatively stable big powers relations based on communicated and mutual interests to defuse external pressures which have arisen to counteract its rise. Secondly, China should expand its security contacts and build a stable and practical regional security framework. For example, China should stick to the goals of a denuclearized and stable Korean peninsular and peaceful resolution of the issue, support reunification and promote the“Six-Party Talks”. In this way, Beijing could weaken the influence of the U.S.-Japan alliance in Northeast Asia. China should also strengthen its ties with ASEAN countries, use economic interests to exert influence with these countries and promote China-ASEAN relations in Southeast Asia. China should advance its westward strategy and increase support for stabilizing the situation in Central Asia through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). China should also actively involve itself in South Asia integration and help the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) play its required role.
Thirdly, China should use its geographical advantages to win over the U.S.’traditional allies. Japan is a good example. Japan has failed to gain the region’s trust and therefore has not been able to play its due role in Asia. It can never become a world power simply off the back of its alliance with the U.S. China’s Japan policy highlights this defect hoping to create conditions for reconciliation. With Sino-South Korea stronger trading ties and closer economic cooperation, improvements will follow in bilateral strategic relations. China should develop trade relations but at the same time widen the scope of bilateral security cooperation starting with anti-terrorism, nonproliferation, and crisis prevention to promote all-round bilateral strategic relations. Relations today have grown much more complicated. Even a small country has its own strategic initiative and won’t simply take sides now.
Sino-U.S. relations will not be shadowed by the U.S.’ alliance system. Against the backdrop of globalization, their ties are marked by complex interests, cooperation and competition. From this it is realistic to maintain the strategic balance. While aiming to contain China strategically, the U.S. is unable to engage in zero-sum competition with Beijing. Ultimately, this is not just from strategic constraints but it is also in its interests. Former U.S. statesman Henry Kissinger said he believed that China and the U.S. both agree that they need each other because they are both too large to be dominated; they are both too special to be converted; and are too mutually dependent to stand apart from the other. Even with its alliance system, the U.S. cannot stop China from rising. China also cannot challenge U.S.’hegemony and it has no ambitions of driving the U.S. out of the Western Pacific. China should respond to the U.S.’changing strategy and its new strengthened alliance system, but more importantly, China should avoid overreacting. It should expand the space for cooperation and have the patience and confidence to improve bilateral relations instead of engaging in rough confrontation.
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