Over the past three or four years, several prominent commentators have made some astonishing claims, and with the help of the media, many people now believe that the global order has dramatically changed because of China. One famous U.S. scholar of international politics started the idea of G2, saying that only the U.S. and China have the final say on world affairs. A well-known Chinese scholar of international politics has alleged that the world order is shifting from one of one hegemon and many powers to two hegemons and many powers, in other words promoting China to a superpower status.
The key turning point came when China’s GDP overtook Japan’s, hoisting China to global second place in 2010. China’s total trade volume in goods also leaped to second place. This coupled with the lingering financial crisis in the West (which begun in 2008), caused some Chinese people to think the U.S.’number is up. They advocated the idea that China was replacing the U.S., and it was time for China to take over from the West in maintaining world order and supervising international affairs. They argued that it was only a matter of time that China went from second place to first place, booting out the U.S.. Whether these opinions come from an error in assessing the global order or from Chinese wishful thinking or excessive praise from overseas, it is a terrible betrayal of reality. Anyone with common sense knows that the balance of national power is decided by comprehensive national strength and it does not make sense to evaluate a country’s economic strength solely by its GDP. Apart from the discrepancy between China’s GDP and GNP, the hard fact is that China’s global ranking of GDP per capita is still more than 100th, and the total number of people living in extreme poverty is still 150 million. China is also far from being a superpower if you look at a host of factors such as—sustainable development, industrial technology, innovation, economic efficiency, energy consumption, environmental pollution, and soft power. When Chinese leaders make overseas trips, they repeatedly remind the world that China is still a developing country. The former foreign minister, State Councilor Yang Jiechi, said there is a belief in the international society that the world power center is moving fromWest to East. But I disagree.
These kinds of claims and exaggerations not only create a negative influence on China’s diplomatic relations but they have also led to serious consequences for its strategic position. Firstly, it is well-known that the strategic objective of the two U.S. parties is to prevent any other big powers from rising to become a challenge to the U.S. and threatening U.S. hegemony. By recklessly overstating China’s national strength and creating this false idea that China is the world number two power, Washington has been able to label China as its key target. It has pursued a twin policy of engagement and containment. On the one hand it has encouraged China to be a“responsible big power”, while on the other it has pursued a policy of strategic encirclement to contain it. It has moved further from engagement and closer to containment. Its decision to refocus on the Asia Pacific, to make a number of diplomatic and military moves with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, Myanmar and Australia and to adopt strict measures to limit the trade and investment of Chinese enterprises are evidence of this strategic shift.
Secondly, these exaggerations of China’s national strength along with national celebrations of an aircraft carrier in formation greatly increased neighboring countries’fears over China. This celebration coincided with a number of serious disputes over sovereignty in territorial waters between China and several neighboring countries. This highlighted the exaggerated China threat theory and isolated China still further.
Thirdly, China has felt a lot of pressure over the fact that its foreign exchange reserves now top 3 trillion. Much of the world now regards China as a rich country and this carries with it many demands. For example: taking responsibility for the costs of environmental protection and international organizations. Developing countries expect China to provide generous aid and write off debts, even though poverty is an even bigger problem in China.
Being number two is difficult both in international politics or court politics. The second-biggest power faces extreme pressure but it does have the same authority or influence as the top power. China feels this situation is unjust because it has been elevated to the number two position even though it does not have the national strength for this role. This should remind us to hide our capabilities and bide our time. Some 30 years ago and earlier, China had nothing to conceal because it was a poor and weak country. It was necessary for fearless Chinese to fight their rivals under Mao Zedong’courageous sacrifice. China should conceal its abilities and bide its time, according to the theory of Sun Zi’s Art of War.
We will never intentionally conceal our ability since it is impossible for a country to conceal its strength in such a highly information-based era. Rather China needs to show the real China to the world. China also needs to handle relations between a strong country and the welfare society. Over the past 30 years, China’s tax revenues and other governmental income has grown much faster than people’s income, which has meant that China has managed to launch spaceships and build high-speed railways while many people do not have enough money to send their children to school, see a doctor or have their own home. China should learn from advanced countries and adopt a people-oriented economy. For example, although the U.S. government has a lot of debt, it still maintains a welfare society and even made tax payouts several years ago (a practice copied by HongKong). Boasting the world’s biggest foreign exchange reserves, China should move to reduce taxes, boost consumption, put more money into education and controlling pollution rather than contributing to the U.S. economy.
This world number two label has only brought China concerns, envy and hate from other countries.
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